This poll shows clearly that support for Brexit has not waned, but this is not reflected in Parliament and certainly not in the Lords, so who will win the People or Parliament/Lords.
Unfortunately in both Houses they have their own agendas and Brexit is not in them.
For Brexit not to occur what will the outcome be for the Country and Parliament/Lords, perhaps the abolishment of at least one and maybe more.
Another day, another record. The 230 majority against the motion to approve Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement on the UK’s exit from the EU smashes pretty much any parliamentary record one cares to discover.
That May’s immediate response was to make time for the house to debate and vote on Labour’s motion of no-confidence in her the day after her loss was thus hardly a surprise: how else to respond to such a heavy blow against the central platform and policy of the government?
And yet the abiding impression of these events was of avoiding a resolution, for as long as possible. Most obviously, May did not offer her resignation. That was a reflection not of her principles but rather her analysis of the situation. As she noted in her statement, a lack of majority for her deal doesn’t mean there’s a majority for another course of action. Without that alternative majority, she clearly feels there is still everything to play for and she is the right person for the job.
In essence, what May offered parliament was a “put-up or shut-up” proposition. Should the government win the confidence motion – which looks very likely indeed – she will hold a series of cross-party talks, inviting parliament to bring ideas and suggestions about how to build a majority position. The results will then be put to the EU for negotiation and agreement.
Source: Theresa May Brexit deal hammered in parliament, but be wary of prospects of a new ‘consensus’ approach : The Conversation
Stopping Brexit is possible, but it’s complicated. I’m not arguing here that no Brexit is going to happen, only that it is legally and practically possible, and recent events render it slightly more likely.
The only way Brexit can be stopped is if the Article 50 notification, triggered in March 2017 to begin the UK’s departure from the EU, is revoked. Under EU law, once Article 50 is triggered, the departing state automatically leaves the EU after two years, unless Article 50 is extended.
Unfortunately, the short text of Article 50 doesn’t say whether the departing state can unilaterally revoke its notification to leave, or whether the consent of the remaining EU member states is required. A case, currently under consideration by the European Court of Justice (CJEU), will determine just that.
On December 4, the advocate general, Campos Sánchez-Bordona, issued his opinion to the court, arguing that Article 50 is unilaterally revocable. He argued that if the consent of the EU27 was required, this could lead to the departing state being forced to leave the EU against its will, which would be unacceptable.
If the CJEU upholds this opinion in its final judgement due on December 10 – which is not guaranteed – the UK would be able to revoke Article 50 unilaterally, provided it was acting in good faith.
Changes needed to UK law
A revocation of Article 50 would have to be initiated by the UK. It’s anticipated that parliamentary approval, via an act of parliament, would also be required to revoke Article 50, although some constitutional lawyers disagree. Even if parliamentary approval was not legally required, it’s difficult to imagine the government revoking Article 50 without parliament’s backing.
Source: Brexit: is it possible to stop it? : The Conversation
MPs have started to debate the final Brexit withdrawal agreement ahead of a “meaningful vote” at the end of the day on December 11. That is about the only part of the current situation about which we can be sure. There are various possible scenarios that might play out after that vote, some of which are outlined below.
1. MPs vote in favour of the deal
This is possibly the easiest outcome in terms of pushing forward with Brexit, but the hardest to obtain, given the sheer number of Conservative MPs who have said they will vote against the deal. A vote in favour would give the prime minister the power to tell the EU that the deal has been ratified by parliament.
But the government would still need to pass a hefty amount of legislation as the Brexit process continues. This would begin with the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill – a piece of legislation which the House of Commons Library thinks could happen before Christmas.
In the event that this first option doesn’t happen (which seems increasingly likely), the future is all a bid muddled. This is partly because it depends if MPs vote in favour of any amendments to the motion on December 11. Here, the possible outcomes would be:
2. MPs vote against the deal but in favour of an amendment
The House of Commons speaker, John Bercow, can select up to six amendments to a proposed bill to also be debated and voted on by the house. In this case, the proposed amendments include one by Labour MP Hilary Benn to reject both the Brexit deal and a no-deal scenario in an attempt to enhance the power for MPs to find an alternative. Labour and the SNP have said they will support the amendment. Other amendments include extending the Article 50 deadline to give more time to decide how to proceed.
If MPs vote against the main motion on the deal, the government would give a statement to the House of Commons within 21 days setting out how it plans to proceed, as specified in the EU Withdrawal Act 2018. This would bring us to January 1, 2019. Parliament would be given a week to debate the contents of this statement, before a further round of ministerial statements reporting on progress by January 21.
Source: What happens after Brexit vote? Four possible scenarios explained : The Conversation